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Graphic courtesy ABC7
By Brian Hews
Publisher | Follow X
March 7, 2026
The warning coming from Democratic Party leadership about California’s crowded governor’s race should sound familiar to anyone who has watched local politics in California.
I’ve seen this playbook before—right here in Cerritos.
For years, political operatives around former Cerritos Mayor Carol Chen and her allies understood something many voters don’t immediately notice: elections are often decided not just by who runs, but by how many people run.
In local city council races, obscure or little-known candidates would suddenly appear on the ballot. They often had little campaign infrastructure, minimal fundraising and virtually no chance of winning. Yet their presence could still serve a strategic purpose—pulling votes away from competing candidates and splitting the opposition.
When multiple candidates divide a similar voter base, the math can work in favor of the person with the most organized support.
That same dynamic is now playing out on a statewide stage.
California Democrats hold nearly every lever of political power in the state. They dominate voter registration, control the Legislature by overwhelming margins and have held the governor’s office for nearly two decades.
Yet thanks to the state’s top-two primary system—and a dangerously crowded field of Democratic candidates—the party could stumble into a political nightmare of its own making.
Under California’s election rules, all candidates appear on the same primary ballot regardless of party. Only the two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the November election.
In a typical year, that system produces a Democrat-versus-Democrat or Democrat-versus-Republican runoff. But this year something far more unusual is possible: two Republicans advancing to November in one of the most Democratic states in America.
The math is not complicated.
Republicans appear to be consolidating their vote behind two candidates, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton. Meanwhile Democrats are scattering their support across a crowded field.
When one side unites behind two candidates and the other divides its vote among eight or nine, strange things can happen.
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks recently sounded the alarm, urging candidates with no viable path to the general election to reconsider their campaigns. Some critics immediately cried foul, accusing party leaders of trying to control the race.
But Hicks isn’t wrong.
This isn’t about silencing voices or shutting down debate. It’s about recognizing basic political reality.
Several Democratic candidates are running serious campaigns and have the fundraising, recognition and support to compete statewide. Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer have demonstrated the ability to reach voters and build viable coalitions.
But there are others in the race who, at least so far, simply do not have a realistic path to the top two.
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio “Villar” Villaraigosa and former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra are polling only in the mid-single digits, a warning sign that the Democratic vote is already spreading dangerously thin.
Meanwhile Tony Thurmond, Betty Yee, Matt Mahan and Ian Calderon are barely registering with voters — currently polling somewhere between “undecided” and “wait, who’s that?”
At this point, the message should be blunt: if you’re stuck at the bottom of the polls with no realistic path to the top two, it’s time to step aside before political ego hands Republicans a November runoff.
Every percentage point these campaigns pull from the Democratic vote only increases the possibility that Republicans slip into the top two positions. In a system where finishing third is the same as finishing last, that risk is not theoretical.
Democrats should not lose the governorship because too many candidates wanted to make a statement.
If candidates truly care about the direction of California—and about preventing an accidental Republican sweep into November—they need to take a hard look at the numbers.
Villar, Becerra, Thurmond, Yee, Mahan and Calderon should do the responsible thing and step aside.
Elections are about ideas, but they are also about strategy. And right now, the strategy for Democrats should be clear. Clear the field before the field clears you.
If Democrats insist on running half the phone book for governor, they shouldn’t be surprised if the voters send two Republicans to November.
Anyone who has watched local politics long enough knows exactly how this works. In Cerritos, former Mayor Carol Chen and her political allies were famous for encouraging obscure candidates to jump into city council races, splitting the vote just enough to tip the outcome. The strategy wasn’t complicated — divide the opposition and win with the math.
Sacramento is now staring at the same lesson.
The difference is the stakes are a lot higher than a Cerritos council seat.
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