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WAPO/ABC Generic Ballot Poll Shifts 11 Points, Dems Now Lead

May 2, 2022~In a positive indicator for Biden and his party, the Post-ABC poll also shows Democrats moving to rough parity with Republicans on intentions to vote in House races in November, often seen as a key indicator of the size of the potential shifts in the balance of power. Republicans need a net gain of five seats to capture control of the House from the Democrats, which would allow them to block Biden’s agenda for the last half of his term.

Today, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their congressional district, compared with 45 percent who say they would vote for the Republican. Based on historical patterns, Democrats would likely need a bigger advantage to avoid losing their majority.

Yet last fall, Republicans held a 10-point edge and in February led by seven points on this question, known as the generic ballot. Nearly all of the change since February is the result of a shift toward the Democrats among self-identified independents, a group that can be volatile in public opinion polls.

Democrats have a 12-point margin among voters ages 18 to 39; in February, those voters were split about evenly between the two parties. Democrats have an advantage with these younger voters even though they disapprove of Biden’s performance by a 13-point margin, 52 percent to 39 percent.

  • Linda Baltimore says:

    How any serious adult can think the Republicans care anything for the middle, much less lower middle class white voter, is so very ridiculous. There has been no evidence to support the contention. That voting demographics’ lot in life will never improve until they realize the Republicans regard them as valuable only in terms of being available to be conned into voting against their best interest. The lower middle class and lower class white voter has bought into the idea that people lf color are their enemies when it’s actually people of power who block their chances for prosperity.