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Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing in the likelihood of a Seahawks victory over the Patriots — but that’s just the beginning. California traders are also engaging with player touchdown markets, first-half scoring ranges, MVP props, and even “mention markets” that hinge on what broadcasters will say during the telecast.
This surge in volume highlights an important shift: prediction markets aren’t niche anymore. They’re attracting attention from everyday fans and California sports bettors alike for their real-time pricing and wide range of contract types. Kalshi alone has recorded hundreds of millions in trading volume across Super Bowl markets.
What makes this moment especially appealing for California football fans is that many of these platforms are accessible in the U.S. and offer promotional incentives to trade on the Super Bowl.
Here’s a snapshot of some current welcome offers:
● Kalshi promo code — Best offer with promo code RATE, giving a $10 sign up bonus.
● Polymarket — New accounts can receive a $10 bonus. Promo code TWITTER gets you on the waitlist for invite.
● DraftKings Predictions — Matches first trades up to $75 in Prediction Dollars. No code required.
● Fanatics Markets — Provides up to a $75 match bonus for new users. No code required
● Coinbase — Users can earn $5 BTC + spin wheel (up to $200). No code required
These offers differ in structure: some require a minimum trade amount or volume to unlock the bonus, while others offer matched credits or free crypto that can be used immediately. For new userst, promos like these lower the barrier to entry and give a risk-mitigated way to put $10 on the Super Bowl in a state where online sports betting is not available.
Latest Kalshi odds and Super Bowl markets
| Market | Predicted Winner / Favorite | Probability |
| Pro Football Champion | Seattle Seahawks | ~68% |
| Super Bowl MVP | Sam Darnold (SEA) | ~45-56% |
| Super Bowl MVP (runner-up) | Drake Maye (NE) | ~23-33% |
| Which Brands Will Advertise | State Farm, Toyota, Salesforce (near-locks) | 98-99% |
| Who Will Appear in a Big Game Ad | Sydney Sweeney, Timothée Chalamet, Harry Styles listed | Varies |
| Who Will Attend the Big Game | Various (Messi, Musk among listed) | Varies |
| Who Will Perform at the Big Game | Various artists listed | Varies |
| Halftime Show Songs | “Tití Me Preguntó,” “Efecto,” “La Santa” | Varies |
| Announcer Mentions (34 terms) | Safety (97.5%), MVP (96.5%), Lombardi (95.5%) | Varies by term |
| Spread / Game Props | Seahawks -4.5 | — |
| Player Props | Various (rushing yards, etc.) | — |
How do prediction markets work
Traders can select Yes/No contracts on event outcomes across a wide range of sports, along with economics, politics, and the weather. Key bet types are like those seen at sportsbooks and the setup is similar as well, making it easy for to make predictions on the Super Bowl.
Bet Types Include:
● Point Spreads
● Moneylines
● Over/Under (totals)
● Props
● Combos (parlays)
Why This Matters Now
Interest in sports betting has never been higher in states like California, especially for events like the Super Bowl. However, access still varies widely by location. Millions of sports fans in California still don’t have access to betting in the traditional sense. They can follow the odds, analyze matchups, and talk strategy, but they cannot legally place a bet from home.
Prediction markets offer a practical workaround for sports fans. These platforms operate more like financial exchanges than classic sportsbooks and are licensed by the CFTC. Users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, such as which team will win or whether a player will hit certain milestones. Because these markets are regulated at the federal level rather than state by state, platforms like Kalshi can make their services available nationwide.
That distinction is important. It means someone in California or any other state has the same access as someone in Nevada or New Jersey. You do not have to wait for local legislation to change or travel across state lines to participate. As long as you meet basic age and identity requirements, you can open an account and start trading on events from anywhere in the country.
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